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Surprise Split In Iraq?

Formation of an Iraqi government have stalled, splitting largely along racial and religious lines. Arguments cover a wide range of subjects, including control of militia, territory, autonomy, and whether the government should be fundamentally secular or islamic. Rights for minorities, women, and trade unionists appear to be entirely absent.

None of which will be much of a surprise to anyone who has being paying attention. Iraq was always likely to be dominated by large political blocks, backed by armed militia. There is a slim chance for peace here - a heavily federalised Iraq might avoid bloodshed, although that would mean leaving the Kurds in control of the northern oil fields, something America seems reluctant to allow. Otherwise, hind-sight will show this week as another step along the road to civil war, or the dismemberment of Iraq into at least three countries.

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