The Al Qaeda Bogeymen

Last night, an intelligence and police operation apparently uncovered an al Qaeda plot to explode a large, if crude, device within the UK. At the moment, many questions have not been answered - including whether such a plot actually existed, and if so whether it was in fact tied to al Qaeda. Only time will tell whether this represents a worrying new tactic for al Qaeda, or simply over the top reporting.

To date, al Qaeda have never committed two separate atrocities shortly after one another. They have never committed two successive atrocities in the same country. They have not, as far as we are aware, even had two plans running in parallel. There have, admittedly, been a number of minor operations in Islamic countries that have tied to the organisation - small bombs, assassination attempts, and so forth. But as far as the large, headline grabbing actions against the west, and especially America and its allies, their activities have been far more limited.

The threat from al Qaeda has been vastly exaggerated. Their fifteen year or so campaign against the west has caused around ten thousand casualties, and involved one or two atrocities a year. While that is pretty shocking, the simple truth is that the average westerner is at equal risk from a plane crash, and far more risk from motor cars. While there is no doubt that al Qaeda must be stopped, all the evidence indicates that their ability to murder us in large numbers is far smaller than we are often led to believe.

Yet, it is only a matter of weeks since an alleged al Qaeda ricin lab was discovered in North London. Now, a similar flourish of media attention has been given to the arrest of eight men in connection to a more orthodox terrorist explosive. If we are to believe the media coverage, both of these represent a serious, al Qaeda threat aimed at Britain. If this is true, then it represents a worrying shift of focus for al Qaeda, and makes us the first target ever to enjoy such concentrated attention.

How accurate is the media portrayal of these arrests? In truth, the triumphalism is not due. Today's newspapers may be full of sensational statements about "half a ton of explosives" or "al Qaeda" but currently the evidence only points to some disturbed young men with a large quantity of fertiliser. So far, there is no sign of either a connection to al Qaeda - indeed one senior officer has explicitly stated that the men arrested were not acting on al Qaeda's orders - nor of the detonator needed to turn the fertiliser into a bomb.

Similarly, the infamous ricin lab in north London did not contain any significant quantities of the poison, nor of the precursors necessary to make it. If there was a plot to manufacture and release such an agent, it was in its earliest stages, and we don't even know if Britain would have been the target, nor if the men arrested were acting on behalf of al Qaeda.

So are either of these groups connected to al Qaeda at all? Obviously, I don't really know. But given al Qaeda's previous behaviour, it would seem at least one of these groups is entirely unconnected. No one seems to seriously believe that the latest group are anything more than "inspired" by al Qaeda, and the lack of official comment on the alleged ricin lab suggests that their connection to al Qaeda is tenuous. Their ability to perpetrate the acts they were supposedly plotting seems equally unlikely.

Breaking these two groups is a stunning success for our police and intelligence services. If the evidence against them is as strong as has been suggested, the danger from these groups was very real. Yet for some reason our media are not content with reporting the successes that have occurred. Instead, Osama bin Laden's name has been attached, the favoured bogey man to scare us with and sell papers.

Over-stating the threat from al Qaeda is a mistake. Those exposed to such spin could over-react in two, equally dangerous ways. Either the threat of Islamist terrorists hiding around every corner can make people paranoid, overly cautious, even racist. Or the easy defeat of these groups which are probably not connected to al Qaeda itself can blind us to the fact that we really aren't making headway with defeating the core organisation.

Al Qaeda thrives on publicity. By keeping their name constantly in the public attention, our media is providing them with the very thing that they most desire. By keeping us paranoid about their activities, al Qaeda's aim of destabilising our countries is brought that much closer. Yet, conversely, by trumpeting every small success than can possibly be twisted into a victory in the war on terror, the media whitewashes over our lack of progress in defeating al Qaeda itself. Since the attack in Afghanistan, we have made little progress in arresting or assassinating al Qaeda operatives, and almost none in tracking down the hierarchy. The defeat of these independent group's plans tells us nothing about whether we are still at risk from a concerted al Qaeda attack.

No one can deny that the arrest of two terrorist groups within the UK in recent months is anything other than good news. As a testimony to the skill and dedication of our intelligence and police services, this news cannot be beaten. But, over-selling this news is both unnecessary and dangerous. The spin that somehow these actions constitute a defeat of al Qaeda is probably wrong. We must not allow ourselves to believe that al Qaeda is anything other than it is - a still deadly foe, but one whose reach does not extend to organising as many plots against us as the newspapers might wish us to believe.

Graham Robinson. 31st March 2004.

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