Spanish Democracy in the UK

One problem with war in a foreign country is that the cost is often unclear to those at home. While the justifications for invading Iraq look thinner every day, for many people the cost is unclear. A few thousand people they never met or saw, a few billion pounds of government money that doesn't seem real. Spain, however, has discovered that in one day the cost can change. Leading target for international terrorism was a price too high for the people of Spain. And that should worry the government in the UK as well.

There is a substantial difference between the war on terror and the invasion of Iraq. In September 2001, as America prepared to invade Afghanistan in an attempt to destroy al Qaeda, the world supported them. Countries around the globe understood their reasoning, and stood beside them to be counted. Al Qaeda's response - most notably in Bali - seemed to be random violence, lashing out at a world that refused to conform to their narrow, bigoted ideology. Iraq changed things. Instead of a united world that understood the American-led actions, the West was divided, the East united in rejecting American aggression. The reasons for invading Iraq never made sense, and don't today. The cost is slowly becoming clearer. In the year since Iraq was invaded, al Qaeda has confined their attacks to those who actively supported the war, first in Turkey, now in Spain.

There is no evidence that al Qaeda's aims have changed, just their choice of target. Their aim has always been primarily anti-American. Iraq has demonstrated which countries are most closely allied to America, and therefore in al Qaeda's warped view make the best targets. One cost of supporting the invasion of Iraq is that we have stuck our head above the parapets, separated ourselves from the herd. Finding themselves on the front line of a war can make those who supported war, or who considered it a minor matter, reconsider.

What happened in Spain could soon be repeated elsewhere. A pro-war prime minister, regarded as dishonest and manipulative, displaced from office by a terrorist attack at the wrong moment? The only major difference is the lack in Britain of a currently credible anti-war opposition party. Most likely such an attack in Britain would result in an outflow of Labour voters to the Liberals and Greens, handing the election to the Tories.

Such a change would not assist al Qaeda. They would exchange one rabidly pro-American, pro-aggression party for another, their foreign policies almost indistinguishable. That won't stop al Qaeda. Their aim is not to influence the Western democratic process, but to cause spectacular carnage. There is no action we can take - except total withdrawal from every land ever claimed by a Moslem ruler, including Spain - that will satisfy these monsters. To al Qaeda we are just targets, their audience is the Islamic youth, whom they hope to infuse with the spirit of jihad, and a sense that the holy war can be won. And there are many who should know who believe that an al Qaeda attack on the UK is inevitable.

Such an attack can be prevented, and I can only hope that our intelligence services will manage to do so. However, should the worst happen, the loss of life will be quite bad enough. There is no need for those of us who survive to suffer a return to Thatcherite rule as well. I believe Blair is already a clear electoral liability, an al Qaeda attack prior to the election will guarantee it. Labour needs to act now if it wishes to prevent a Conservative land-slide.

There are two actions that can minimise the impact of Iraq on the next election. Firstly, we need an immediate change of leader to someone untainted with the decision to go to war. The obvious candidate remains Gordon Brown, coupled with a return to the cabinet for Robin Cook, and backbench positions for Straw and Hoon. Secondly, we need to withdraw from Iraq.

Now, unlike the new Spanish government, I don't support a unilateral, unconditional withdrawal. We're in Iraq now, and we cannot leave the Iraqis to pay the price for our mistakes. Our withdrawal needs to be managed, with elected regional and national assemblies in place, along with a real constitution, rather than the botched together temporary, largely unsupported version that currently exists. Only by assisting in building a real government is there any chance that we will not leave Iraq in a worse condition than when we invaded. Unthinking withdrawal to suit our own political timetable is every bit as immoral as the original unjustified invasion.

Instead, our leaders support the botched withdrawal process, designed to fit only with the Bush administration's re-election timetable, which currently looks as if it will build nothing substantial enough to survive the first vaguely populist leader to grab for the dictatorship. Our leaders condemn the Spanish people and their chosen leaders for allowing al Qaeda to dictate their foreign policy - despite the fact that al Qaeda has no interest in Spanish politics, nor in Iraq other than for recruiting propaganda.

The spin that has been put on the Spanish reaction to the atrocity they have suffered has been simply disgusting. Rejecting the policies that placed them in the front line of a war they never believed in is entirely rational. Al Qaeda only ever desired one victory - world-wide front page headlines for their massacre - and that victory was handed to them long before the Spaniards went to the polls. If our leaders do not learn humility from this, it will not be long before they too are ousted from power. And Michael Howard in Number Ten would be a disaster for us all.

Graham Robinson. 17th March 2004.

archives :: links :: faq :: feedback

Find out how you can support Online Opinion

Online Opinion is a trademark owned by Graham Robinson. All rights reserved. The copyright on all articles, columns, and letters on this site is owned by the original author. The copyright on all other material is owned by Graham Robinson. Permission is granted to download and store these pages for personal or research purposes only, and only as is consistent with normal viewing of web pages. All other rights reserved. Permission is granted to freely link to any page within this site, as long as ownership of the material linked to is clear. No advertisements may be associated with this site, whether explicitly or implicitly, without prior written permission.