Walking the Path to Peace

Yesterday showed the Northern Ireland peace process in microcosm. Hope, progress, intransigence, disappointment. The story of that one day is the story of the whole process. With hopes rapidly dwindling, many questions need to be answered. The most important being how can progress now be made?

I'm not catholic. I'm not Irish. And I have little sympathy for either side in this particular argument. This is worth stating clearly, because my next comment is likely to make some people believe otherwise. Much of the fault for yesterday's failures can be laid at the feet of David Trimble, and Unionists in general. The IRA have made a real concession. The decommissioning of Republican arms is a Unionist demand, and a necessary part of the peace process. That the IRA has made a move towards implementing this demand is not in dispute - all sides are agreed that a substantial quantity of arms have been made unusable. Instead, Trimble is playing word games. The decommissioning was not sufficiently transparent. The agreement on decommissioning allowed for a trusted third party to oversee the process. At the time, Trimble agreed to that. Now, he seeks to move the goal posts, requiring details that would effectively allow Unionists to supervise the process themselves.

Trimble's demands are not reasonable. Even if a detailed list were produced, the average person has no means to judge the context. If the IRA has destroyed two hundred weapons - is that a lot? It sounds quite a lot, but as a fraction of the whole armament of the IRA is it significant? A mere token? All that a detailed list can achieve is for the average man in the street to gain his judgement of whether the quantity of arms decommissioned is significant or not from politicians and the media - people, in short, with political motivations. At present, we have the word of an agreed, independent observer. Rejecting that in favour of the judgement of a biased politician is not acceptable.

And Trimble goes further. He has stated that "Recovery would be very simple - let the prime minister put the information he has in the public domain. Let the republicans remove from De Chastelain the limitations that have prevented him from giving a full report - let him do so." For De Chastelain or Blair to impart information about the decommissioning act that is not already in the public domain would be to break their word to the Republicans. Doing so would cause enormous damage to any hope for a negotiated peace settlement. Trimble must know this, leaving the Republicans, and especially the IRA, as the only people capable of making the move he has demanded.

Yet, the IRA has already made a substantial concession - they have decommissioned weapons - and so far have nothing to show for it. Trimble's promised concession - a return to power sharing - has been withdrawn, pending further concessions. There must be a very real fear in Republican minds that even if they were to meet the latest Unionist demands, Trimble would find some other fault and still refuse to co-operate. After all, the bland confirmation from De Chastelain cannot have come as a surprise to Trimble. The chances of the IRA allowing details of the decommissioning to be released is very slight, at least without some form of concession first from Trimble.

Trimble's actions are those of a man walking a political tightrope. His political survival relies on being able to project two conflicting images to two different groups of people. As the most moderate of Unionists, he obtains support from Britain, pretty much ensuring that a return to devolved government will only occur with him as First Minister. But he can only continue as leader of his party, and his party can only maintain dominance of Unionist politics, if he is not seen as willing to hand power to the Republicans. This soft/hard image is a difficult one to maintain, and Trimble is worryingly bad at doing so. Instead, his success is in making other moderates invisible, leaving him free to demand whatever concessions he feels necessary to appease his own party. He cannot be sidelined by the UK or Irish governments, for they have no one else to deal with.

Yesterday may prove a step too far for Trimble. While his refusal to accept the IRA decommissioning may have been intended to appear as a show of strength, his last minute reversal instead looks weak, and leaves him open to charges of naivety. Meanwhile, the UK and Irish governments have had their plans derailed by him once too often, and already Blair has announced that the proposed November elections will go ahead anyway. This is a high risk strategy - the success of a devolved government for Ulster relies on elections producing an executive that is broadly acceptable to both communities. By sidelining Trimble, Blair risks the electorate returning a highly partisan executive, dominated by Unionist and Republican extremists, and incapable of power-sharing. That can only lead to a swift suspension of devolution, and general disillusionment with the peace process.

Despite the risks, Blair's strategy is the correct one. Trimble has shown that he is too confident of his own importance, and willing to sacrifice the entire peace process for his own political survival. It is exceedingly unlikely that Republicans will ever deal with him again, and even less likely that he will authorise the Unionist concessions needed to return the IRA to the negotiating table. Simply put, with Trimble, there can be no peace process. The actions of yesterday have forced Blair to sideline Trimble. Only by continuing with the elections, and hoping that the people of Northern Ireland will return a moderate assembly, despite rather than because of Trimble, can the peace process be saved.

Despite the criticism I have heaped on Trimble, there is much to fault with the Republicans as well. Decommissioning has started, but needs to be finished. At the very least, a timetable for doing so would defray the justified worry that the IRA is willing to string out the process indefinitely. Punishment beatings are another source of major concern. Still, it is the IRA that yesterday took a step in the right direction. By not taking a similar step himself, Trimble has signalled that the path of compromise is one he intends Republicans to walk alone. Peace will not result from such behaviour, and if David Trimble will not compromise, there is no option but to seek Unionists who will.

Graham Robinson. 22nd October 2003.

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