Bush's Grand Middle East Adventure

Just before the invasion of Iraq, the world was told that the forthcoming war was part of an American grand plan for the Middle East. Based on the twin pillars of removing Hussein and the Isreal-Palestine Road Map, the American plan would herald in a new, peaceful, secure region, free of tyranny and oppression. Today, as Isreal and Syria edge towards war, and Iraq descends further into chaos, that promise seems further away than ever. So, what went wrong?

Problems in Iraq stem in part from the lies told before the war. You remember, the "Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, and is working to develop more" line. Five months, $300 million, and 1500 people later, we have a test tube, that might contain botulinum, and is definitely ten years old. That's less than Blix found before the war - when mustard gas was discovered - and Bush didn't even try to sell that to us as a smoking gun. No weapons. No signs of current weapons programs. All that they have found is signs that Iraq had weapons programs in the early nineties. Well, we all knew that.

There are other lies - "Hussein is supporting international terrorism" perhaps the most obvious. However, lies are not the only issue. Other White House statements - "Removing Hussein will bring democracy to Iraq", "We will be welcomed", "The war will be quickly won" - seem to have been believed. Bush and his advisors seem to genuinely have believed that their optimistic reading of the situation was true.

Why they should have believed this is a difficult question. Partly, it appears to stem from Bush's deep seated belief that he is God's chosen. His plans will succeed because God is on America's side. This isn't as stupid as it sounds - Bush's whole life has been a success. There has always been someone to help him succeed at everything he attempted, clean up every mess he made. Whether recovering from drug addiction or becoming President despite losing the election, Bush has had everything his own way. He has never had to deal with failure. And Bush is surrounded by people who are convinced of America's might. The people who put Hussein in power and kept him there (and who, by God, ripped the little upstart down again). The people who, at least in their own minds, won the Cold War. People who have spent a life time interfering with other countries. People who have not been forced to acknowledge limits.

The Bush administration is supremely arrogant, an arrogance based on America's military and economic might. This arrogance manifests itself in far more obvious ways than the certainty about victory in Iraq. The sheer sense of betrayal portrayed when France dared to oppose war on the grounds that they had seen no evidence that Iraq was a threat to anyone. Only an arrogant American government could feel that its opinions carried such weight that a dissenting voice was somehow a traitor. The fact that France has since been proved entirely correct hasn't endeared them much, either.

And there's the current US administration in a nutshell. So convinced of their own superiority that they act with shock when the world does not automatically obey their orders. Worse, they have no response to refusal. When their bullying demands are denied, America has no other tactic. This is symptomatic of the Bush administration's other great failing - an inability to plan ahead.

On the face of it, the Iraq campaign went exceedingly, almost surprisingly well. American forces have faced little resistance, have captured the vast majority of people on their "most wanted" list, and have suffered few accidents - supplies have largely arrived as needed, there have been relatively few cases of friendly fire, equipment has been reasonably reliable. Yet from day one, there have been problems. Widespread looting was predictable and preventable, yet troops had no idea how to deal with the situation when it occurred. Iraqi resistance to the US invasion was always likely to be largely guerilla in nature, yet the Americans seem surprised that someone is still taking pot shots at their troops. Don't they know we're the good guys? Don't they know we're supposed to win?

Worse yet, the stated intention of establishing an Iraqi democracy was always nigh on impossible. Yet, the American government is not only surprised at the difficulty, but did not have (and has not formulated) a policy for establishing an Iraqi government of any kind. The original Bush plan of "Here's a nice Iraqi boy, please vote for him" was so banal that they didn't even attempt to follow through on it. And now, America (and therefore Britain) are sat in the desert, desperately searching for any exit strategy other than the disasterous two available - abandon Iraq to civil war, or impose a dictator.

So where does this leave the Middle East? Bush's Iraq adventure is in tatters. Hussein is gone, but not forgotten. The weapons of mass destruction remain not so much elusive as non-existent. Regime change has stalled halfway - Hussein is not in power, but his replacement is unknown. Democracy is not possible - a straight vote will divide along ethnic lines, with the losers turning to violence; while a federal system will leave the oil fields controlled by groups that are unacceptable to the US. Worse, a bungled hand over to an Iraqi government will lead to civil war, which almost inevitably will lead to Iraq being controlled by a dictator backed by the military. Civil war even opens the possibility of Hussein returning to power. Certainly, we have no reason to suppose the eventual leader of Iraq will be any better than Hussein.

So America takes the only action it can. It waits. Iraq remains uncontrolled, ungoverned. Sabotage and attacks on US troops occur daily, yet that is a small price to pay compared to getting the exit strategy wrong. Bush can only leave Iraq when he can be sure it will be in a better state than when he entered. Since he can never be sure of that, America must stay.

The other pillar of Bush's Middle East strategy is no more secure. Having achieved the near impossible, and secured tentative agreement from both Palestinians and Isrealis to a Road Map for peace, Bush has fluffed it. Again, the complete lack of follow through is to blame. A framework for peace is not peace, and the problems that have occurred were entirely predictable. That the US had no strategy to restrain Sharon when the inevitable suicide bombings occurred is almost unbelievable, yet it is typical of this administration. Bush believes that saying the world should be this way is enough, that implementing and enforcing his proposals is a job for someone else. But the Road Map is pointless without someone to enforce the commitments it contains. For the country that brokered this deal, and is almost uniquely placed to enforce it, to walk away is an enormous betrayal. The failure of the Road Map has left the region in a worse position than before Bush interfered. Not only has the Palestine-Isreal conflict returned to its former level of pointless violence, but now Isreal and Syria find themselves one atrocity from war. Yet, this could have been avoided - if only Bush had the strength and will to sideline the intransigents and bolster the moderates on both sides. Instead, Bush has abandoned the process he started. Two states was the only hope for a peaceful solution. Bush's betrayal of the Road Map makes that solution further away than ever.

Bush's grand plans for the Middle East were typical of his administration. Bombastic, extravegent intentions, with no thought given to problems, consequences, or follow through. Bush has spoken - it is enough! Instead of a stable Iraqi democracy, a glowing example to the region, we have a quagmire - chaotic and violent. Instead of the two states of Isreal and Palestine living peacefully side by side, we have the prospect of war between Isreal and Syria. In one case, Bush's involvement shows no signs of making the region safer, in the other, he has made matters worse. Along the way, he has damaged international insititutions and international law, violated human rights, and wasted billions of dollars that could have been better spent both in his own country and abroad. Our only hope is that in 2004 the American public elects someone with an intellectual ability above that of a small, petulant child.

Graham Robinson. 8th October 2003.

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