An Illegal War Begins

The invasion of Iraq begins soon, probably tomorrow. The last few days have provided further proof, if such proof were needed, of the extent to which we have been lied to and misled. Paradoxically, the last few days have also proved the strength of the international community. Bush goes to war with a coalition of the willing, not a mandate from the world. Many of the countries that have proved integral parts of recent international action - in Afghanistan and Kosovo, for instance - will not be there. The UN has been saved from becoming a mere rubber stamp for American foreign policy, and the potential first steps have been taken towards building a new world order. Unless the Bush administration changes direction swiftly, a new world order in which America will not be the centre of the world.

The legality of this war is now beyond question - no UN mandate, no clear and present danger, therefore no legal justification for invasion. But international law is more complicated than that. While this action is clearly illegal by the letter of international law, if it could be otherwise justified, that would provide a legal defence. The question therefore becomes whether this invasion can be justified.

I believe that war can be justified, and that justification will be based on four central themes. War is the action of last resort. The humanitarian benefits of war are greater than the dangers of that war. The country attacked is a clear and present danger to the country attacking, or a third country who cannot defend itself. The conduct of the war will be within the confines of international law - in other words, no war crimes will be committed to prosecute the war. The information available to me at this moment indicates that the imminent invasion of Iraq meets none of these criteria.

If the invasion of Iraq occurs this week, war will be the action of preferred policy, not last resort. The weapons inspectors have stated that Iraq does not possess nuclear weapons, nor does it possess an active nuclear armament program. Given a matter of months, they believe they can provide convincing evidence of this. The weapons inspectors have stated that within months they can oversee Iraq's complete disarmament. In short, the inspection program is working. The Bush administration does not fear Iraq's weapons, it fears losing the excuse for invasion.

Some will no doubt argue that whether Iraq will eventually disarm or not, Hussein's human rights abuses justify the invasion. This argument falls even further short of the last resort criteria. No attempt has been made to stop Iraqi human rights abuses. No human rights monitors have been sent to Iraq, no UN resolution has been passed calling on Hussein to change his behaviour. If the invasion of Iraq is to be a humanitarian effort, it will be the first serious attempt to stop Iraqi human rights abuses. Hardly an action of last resort.

There is the possibility that invading Iraq will lead to some humanitarian benefits. Certainly, those currently imprisoned or under threat of death or torture are likely to be better off under any new government. However, there are two worries I have about this. Firstly, there is no guarantee that those who take over control of Iraq will be any better than the current rulers. America has time and again proven how little it cares for human rights in other countries. Afghanistan still has few rights for women, and the death sentence for adultery. Enemy combatants captured in Afghanistan are denied their rights under both U.S. and international law. America deals daily with countries whose human rights records are as bad as Iraq's, yet provides little or no pressure for change. Most contenders to take over the rule of Iraq are unlikely to be better, and some may be worse. America will not choose between the possibilities based on their approach to human rights, but on their promises to America. Neither will the Iraqi people be allowed to choose a leadership that opposes American wishes, regardless of those leaders other qualities.

Secondly, any invasion in Iraq has the potential for an enormous cost in human terms. Diplomats are being evacuated from some neighbouring countries, defensive forces stationed in others. We already know that Al Qaeda is using Iraq as a recruiting tool, and we may never know how many terrorist attacks will be linked to this invasion. The cost to our troops may be high, with death, physical and psychological injury, and mysterious conditions like Gulf War Syndrome inevitable. The cost to Iraq's people will be high, with thousands of civilian lives at risk. The direct cost of the war and its aftermath is likely to be measured in thousands of lives; its potential to destabilise the country, region and world is beyond calculation. And this ignores the financial cost - $25 billion just to transport American troops to the region and back. How many health care and social programs will go short to fund this? How many international aid projects? As drought and famine sweeps Africa, is this really the best use of our money?

The threat to neighbours has been vastly exaggerated, the threat to the rest of the world is nothing but a fabrication. Last week I discussed the revelation that the only evidence of Iraq having new weapons programs was a fabrication. Quite simply, any weapons programs Iraq has are the same programs, in a less advanced state, that it possessed in the late eighties. When, you will recall, we were quite happy to bankroll the program and supply raw materials. Hussein has successfully been contained for over a decade, and there is no evidence that he currently poses any threat to anyone outside his own country.

So, we go to war, not as a matter of last resort, not for humanitarian reasons, not to protect ourselves, not to protect others. Why? A need for Bush to look tough, to take revenge on someone? Electoral gain? Oil? Your guess is as good as mine. All I know is that the reason we go to war is not the reason we have been told. To underline this, the final ultimatum, issued by the self appointed leader of the free world, stated the conditions for Iraq to avoid war clearly. Hussein must leave Iraq. Not give up his weapons. Not stop torturing people. Not allow free elections. As I've said before, this talk of weapons of mass destruction, of human rights is a smoke screen. Bush wants Hussein. Personally. Everything else is a lie to justify the pre-determined end.

For this reason, we will invade another country. And we will commit war crimes against them. Three thousand bombs in 48 hours. Depleted uranium shells. Microwave weapons. Cluster bombs. There is nothing civilised about war, but there are degrees of barbarity. The expected course of the invasion will result in massive civilian death, infrastructure and cultural destruction, vast areas of Iraq becoming uninhabitable.

None of which will worry Bush and his advisors. America is not subject to the International Criminal Court. But Britain is, and Blair should be worried. If the war proceeds as expected, Blair will be as responsible for its conduct as anyone. The ICC can and should enforce the disgust of the international community at an enterprise that holds American expediency in higher regard than international law, diplomacy, or Iraqi life. The obvious target for that disgust is Blair, and his indictment is not beyond imagination.

There is no justification for war in Iraq. Diplomatic means to remove Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and to protect Iraqi people are available, and where they have been tested they have proven effective. We have the time, and the opportunity to solve this problem without resorting to barbarity. It won't make such good television, it won't provide for Bush's thirst for revenge. But it is the mark of civilisation.

Graham Robinson. 19th March 2003.

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